A Rising Tide of Nationalism Threatens the Foundations of Post-War Europe
This month, as President Biden and President Emmanuel Macron of France stood side-by-side on the Normandy bluffs to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, they paid tribute to the "things worth fighting and dying for": freedom, democracy, and the global order built in the aftermath of World War II. However, just weeks later, the ability of both leaders to defend these shared values appears increasingly fragile, as the world navigates the turbulent waters of rising nationalism in both Europe and the United States.
Key Takeaways:
- A "wobbly" Biden performance in the recent debate against Donald Trump has fueled anxiety within the Democratic party and cast a shadow over the upcoming US election, raising questions about the future of US leadership in Europe.
- France holds parliamentary elections on Sunday, with polls suggesting the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, could achieve a remarkable victory, potentially securing control of the French prime minister’s office.
- Le Pen’s success would represent a significant shift in European politics, potentially weakening French support for a united Europe and undermining President Macron’s vision for a "Europe power" capable of standing independent from a potentially unreliable United States.
- This unsettling possibility comes at a time when Germany, the other cornerstone of the European Union, is also struggling with a weakened economy, a fractious coalition, and a resurgent far-right party.
- The intertwined fates of the United States, France, and Germany, three of the most powerful nations in the Western world, are now intertwined with the potential for a dramatic reshaping of the international order.
The Normandy anniversary served as a stark reminder of the shared sacrifices that have underpinned the post-war world. But the recent events in both France and the United States threaten to unravel the very foundations of that order, raising serious questions about the future of the transatlantic alliance and the unity of Europe.
The situation in France, where the National Rally’s potential for power is perhaps the most significant development, is particularly alarming. The party, known for its Euroskeptic stance, anti-immigrant rhetoric and admiration for Vladimir Putin’s Russia, stands in direct opposition to the values of a united Europe that President Macron has championed and the United States has staunchly supported.
While Mr. Macron has repeatedly warned of the need for a strong and independent Europe to counter the potential unreliability of the United States under a potential second Trump administration, the reality of governing alongside the National Rally could significantly hamper his ability to realize this vision. His ambitious plans for a more integrated Europe, including a strengthened defense capacity and closer military cooperation, could be significantly curtailed or even abandoned.
The rise of the National Rally, however, is not just a French phenomenon. It reflects a broader trend across Europe where nationalist and Euroskeptic parties are gaining ground, exploiting anxieties about immigration, economic insecurity, and the perceived loss of national sovereignty. The recent success of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a fierce critic of the EU and a vocal admirer of Putin, is another example of this trend.
The United States, meanwhile, faces its own internal challenges. The recent debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump has further exposed the deep divisions within American society, with Trump’s rhetoric on foreign policy and international institutions leaving many deeply concerned about the future of American leadership. Trump’s persistent hostility towards NATO and the European Union, coupled with his willingness to engage with autocratic leaders like Putin, is a stark contrast to the traditional American commitment to a rules-based international order.
The potential for a Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election, combined with the rise of the National Rally in France, could have devastating consequences for the transatlantic alliance and the stability of the European Union. This convergence of events has prompted concerns about whether the post-war order, built on the pillars of democracy, freedom, and international cooperation, can withstand the forces of nationalism that are surging across the Atlantic.
While some experts argue that the institutions of NATO and the European Union are resilient and capable of weathering these storms, the potential for chaos and discord cannot be ignored. The coming months and years will be critical in determining whether the West can successfully navigate this period of profound uncertainty, or whether the foundations of the post-war order will crumble under the weight of rising nationalism and political polarization.
The future of international cooperation, the stability of Europe, and the fate of the values enshrined in the Normandy landings all hang in the balance. The choices made by voters in both the United States and France will have a profound impact on the course of history, shaping the future of the world for generations to come.
