Biden’s Struggling Campaign: Is it Time for Democrats to Circle the Wagons, or Cut Their Losses?
President Biden’s recent debate performance has raised concerns about his viability as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election. While some Democrats are attempting to downplay the significance of the debate’s outcome, citing Barack Obama’s first debate loss as an incumbent, the current situation is strikingly different. Obama was not 81 years old at the time and was seen as a clear favorite, whereas Biden is facing a deficit in the polls, currently holding a meager 35% chance of winning the election. The polls reveal a broader trend that is particularly concerning for Democrats: Biden is consistently underperforming Democratic Senate candidates in key swing states. This suggests that while voters may be receptive to Democratic policies and candidates at the state level, they are increasingly hesitant to reelect Biden.
Key Takeaways:
- Biden’s Debate Performance: Biden’s performance at the first debate did not inspire confidence in voters, and the event has further eroded his already weak standing in the polls.
- Swing State Underperformance: Biden is significantly lagging behind Democratic Senate candidates in five key swing states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This gap has been consistent across a wide range of polls, suggesting a genuine disconnect between voters’ support for Democratic candidates at the state level and their willingness to re-elect Biden.
- The Age Factor: Polls consistently show that voters are increasingly concerned about Biden’s age, perceiving him as too old to serve another term. This perception is a significant hurdle for his re-election campaign.
A Deeper Dive into the Numbers:
An analysis of 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Biden and Trump emerged as their respective party’s nominees in March reveals a disturbing trend. In 46 out of 47 polls, the Democratic Senate candidate polled better than Biden. This consistent underperformance cannot be attributed to random fluctuations in polling data; it suggests a fundamental issue with Biden’s candidacy.
The gap between Biden’s performance and that of the Senate candidates is not just marginal. He is underperforming the presumed Democratic Senate nominee by an average of eight points across these five key swing states, ranging from five points in Michigan to a staggering thirteen points in Nevada. This consistent disparity underscores the extent to which Biden is becoming a liability for Democrats in crucial battleground states.
Beyond Biden: A Glimpse of Hope for Democrats?
Despite the dismal outlook for Biden’s re-election, there is a glimmer of hope for Democrats. The consistently strong performance of Democratic Senate candidates suggests a broader public acceptance of Democratic policies and candidates. This provides a potential lifeline for Democrats, who may be able to secure victories at the state level even in the face of a weakened presidential campaign.
The Challenge Ahead for Democrats:
To salvage the 2024 election, Democrats face a critical decision. They must assess whether to circle the wagons behind a struggling Biden or acknowledge the emerging consensus that he is a liability to the party’s prospects. While some argue that the party should rally behind Biden for the sake of continuity and unity, the data paints a stark picture of his waning support.
A Potential Solution: A Democratic Re-election Audition
One potential solution to the current dilemma is a Democratic re-election audition. This would involve a process whereby potential replacements for Biden could engage in a series of debates, speeches, and rallies, allowing voters to voice their preferences in both formal polls and informal straw polls.
The Benefits of a Re-election Audition:
Such an audition would offer several benefits:
- Direct Voter Input: It would provide a platform for direct voter engagement and feedback, allowing Democrats to gauge public sentiment on potential candidates.
- A More Informed Decision: It would enable delegates at the Democratic National Convention to make a more informed decision based on direct voter input and a clearer understanding of the candidates’ strengths and weaknesses.
- A Potential Boost in Morale: It could revitalize the Democratic campaign by injecting fresh enthusiasm and momentum, bolstering voter morale.
The Risks of a Re-election Audition:
However, this approach also presents some risks:
- The Risk of Division: It could create internal divisions within the party, further alienating Biden’s supporters and potentially intensifying intra-party conflicts.
- The Risk of Undermining Biden: It could erode Biden’s leadership and undermine his authority, further weakening his position within the party.
- The Risk of a Flawed Process: It would require a carefully constructed process to ensure fairness, transparency, and meaningful voter participation, preventing the emergence of unintended biases or manipulative practices.
The Stakes Are High
Despite the risks, the potential rewards of a re-election audition are substantial. The current situation presents a significant challenge for Democrats, one that demands bold action and a willingness to embrace potentially unconventional solutions.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be a fiercely contested battleground, and Democrats must make critical decisions in the weeks and months to come. The data suggests that Biden’s current position as the party’s nominee is untenable, and the time for action is now. Should they choose to stand by Biden, they risk repeating the mistakes of 2022. However, embracing a more dynamic process, such as a re-election audition, could revitalize the campaign and provide a path to victory in 2024.
