The Starliner Saga: A High-Stakes Decision for NASA
Eight weeks. That’s how long Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft has been orbiting the International Space Station (ISS), carrying astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams. Initially, a swift return to Earth was anticipated, but a series of technical issues has thrown those plans into disarray.
The initial issues involved helium leaks and failing thrusters – problems NASA officials initially downplayed. "Those are pretty small, really, issues to deal with," stated Mark Nappi, vice president and manager of Boeing’s Commercial Crew Program, during a post-docking news conference. "We’ll figure them out for the next mission. I don’t see these as significant at all."
However, as days turned into weeks, those initial "small issues" proved more significant than anticipated. The most pressing concern became the malfunctioning reaction control system (RCS) thrusters, crucial for steering Starliner during its departure from the ISS and for the critical engine burn needed to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere.
The situation has reached a critical point, with NASA facing a crucial decision – should Wilmore and Williams return to Earth on Starliner, or should they be brought back aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft?
While NASA’s initial plan was to bring the astronauts home on Starliner, recent events have shifted the momentum. Intensive testing of the Starliner thrusters has been conducted, both on a ground test stand at White Sands, New Mexico, and in orbit while docked at the ISS. While NASA has deemed the preliminary results "helpful," significant questions remain about the reliability of the spacecraft’s thrusters.
"Our prime option is to complete the mission," Steve Stich, NASA’s program manager for commercial crew, declared just one week ago. "There are a lot of good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner. Starliner was designed, as a spacecraft, to have the crew in the cockpit."
However, recent activity at NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX points towards a potential shift in that plan. Multiple sources suggest that the astronauts returning on a Crew Dragon spacecraft is now more likely than not, although NASA hasn’t yet made a final decision.
"NASA is evaluating all options for the return of agency astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station as safely as possible," stated NASA spokesperson Josh Finch, emphasizing that no decisions have been made. "The agency will continue to provide updates on its planning."
Adding fuel to the fire, NASA has been delaying a critical Flight Readiness Review meeting, originally scheduled for August 1st. A vague blog update from NASA on Thursday simply stated that further updates will be provided next week, suggesting that the meeting may still take place.
Further raising eyebrows, NASA issued a $266,678 task award to SpaceX on July 14th for a "special study for emergency response." While NASA claimed this was unrelated to Starliner’s issues, sources reveal that the study was indeed designed to address the potential need for a Crew Dragon rescue mission. This study included work on flying more than four crew members home on Crew Dragon, a scenario previously explored in response to the Soyuz MS-22 leaks, but also the possibility of a six-person Dragon return, accommodating Wilmore and Williams in addition to a regular crew complement.
SpaceX has also been actively preparing for a scenario where either two or four astronauts launch on board Crew-9, a mission scheduled for August 18th. This launch could potentially be delayed, and SpaceX has already identified flight suits that would fit Wilmore and Williams, allowing them to fly home either on the currently docked Crew-8 spacecraft or on the upcoming Crew-9 vehicle.
The potential scenarios are complex, and crew assignments remain unclear. It’s possible that if four astronauts launch on Crew-9, five people could fly home on each of the two Dragons, further complicating the situation.
Sources indicate that vigorous discussions about the Starliner return have been taking place at NASA field centers, with multiple groups expressing reservations about using Starliner. This raises concern because some engineers believe that if there are doubts about the spacecraft’s safety, NASA should prioritize the safer option – flying home on Crew Dragon, which has proven its reliability with 13 successful launches and 12 successful landings.
NASA officials face a daunting decision – one that carries significant implications for the future of both the Commercial Crew Program and the Starliner spacecraft.
While Starliner might manage to make it back to Earth safely, the potential risks associated with its current condition are undeniable. Extensive testing has aimed to mitigate these risks, but uncertainties linger.
If NASA opts for the fallback plan, bringing the astronauts home on Crew Dragon, the implications for Starliner could be significant. The program has already faced significant financial setbacks, losing $1.6 billion during its development and testing phases. Reflying a crew test flight, a likely necessity if Starliner returns autonomously, would add further financial burden. This could ultimately lead to Boeing canceling the entire Starliner program, leaving NASA with only SpaceX to rely on for crew transportation – a situation that would likely be challenging for both parties.
However, the alternative – a failed Starliner return, putting the crew at risk – is a scenario far worse. This critical decision, weighing the risks and rewards, rests on the shoulders of NASA officials like Jim Free, NASA’s associate administrator, and Steve Stich, who must carefully analyze the available data and make a call that will have lasting consequences.
The Starliner saga highlights the complex realities of space exploration, where unforeseen technical challenges and high-stakes decisions are the norm. As NASA navigates this challenging situation, the world will be watching, hoping for both a safe return for the astronauts and a solution that secures the future of the Commercial Crew Program.
