The Trump Shooting and the Enduring Power of QAnon: How a Failed Prophecy Deepens Belief
The shooting of former President Donald Trump, while a horrific event, has demonstrated the unsettling resilience of QAnon, a sprawling and dangerous conspiracy theory.
QAnon, with its vast network of online followers, has long peddled fantastical narratives about a "deep state" cabal of pedophiles and Satanists that Trump is battling to save the world. These narratives are often presented as prophecies, promising dramatic events that will vindicate Trump and expose the cabal’s nefarious plans.
The "Q drops," cryptic messages attributed to a shadowy figure known only as "Q," have fueled a constant cycle of speculation and anticipation within the QAnon community. When these prophecies fail to materialize, rather than abandoning the belief system, many QAnon adherents resort to a familiar pattern of "post hoc rationalization," concocting elaborate explanations to justify the discrepancies between reality and their predicted future. This phenomenon, known as "when prophecy fails," is a well-documented psychological process where believers in a failed prophecy are more likely to strengthen their commitment to the belief system.
The Trump shooting offers a compelling case study of this dynamic. Leading up to the attack, QAnon promoter Phil Godlewski, who commands a large following on the social media platform Rumble, predicted a "scare event" or a "9/11-type event" within weeks. When Trump was shot, numerous Godlewski followers eagerly claimed his prediction had materialized.
One individual, identified only as Jay, described his experience with a friend who was deeply entrenched in QAnon beliefs: "My Q friend would call me and inform me that if this happens, to not be afraid, as it’s all part of The Plan. Once the shooting happened, my friend was quick to call to tell me that ‘it’ happened, the scare event. He told me that it’s totally staged, to not be afraid, and that I should believe that Phil is right, that his sources are correct."
Jay noted that his friend, emboldened by the perceived confirmation, moved on to predicting a global financial reset followed by Trump’s reinstatement in November. "Phil has made plenty of other vague predictions that haven’t come true, but since this vague prediction did happen, my Q friend is doubling down," Jay observed.
The shooting seems to have had a similar effect on Amy’s friend, Jane. While Jane had seemingly moved away from her QAnon-fueled social media activity, the shooting triggered a resurgence of conspiracy-laden posts, with her blaming the attack on "a liberal in an alt-right shirt" and believing it was orchestrated by Democrats or Joe Biden.
Katrina Vaillancourt, a former QAnon believer who has shared her experience in a book titled "ReQovery," aptly summarized the mindset that likely dominated the thoughts of those who remained ensnared by the conspiracy: "I would have assumed this was a desperate attack by the evil cabal, using its tentacles of the deep state, including members of the FBI and Secret Service, and the fact that Trump survived it is as close as we get to evidence that God is on Trump’s side. I would be online doing ‘research’ for at least four hours a day, and up to 10 hours a day if something really got under my skin, as this one would have done."
The Trump shooting exemplifies how QAnon thrives on a combination of fear, manipulation, and the confirmation bias inherent in echo chambers. The QAnon community often relies on coded messages and vague predictions to keep followers perpetually on edge.
This constant state of vigilance, combined with an unwavering belief in the "deep state" as a source of imminent threat, creates a fertile ground for any event, however disturbing, to be interpreted as a confirmation of their worldview. The more events deviate from their predicted trajectory, the more likely they are to be twisted into supporting the core narrative of a hidden cabal fighting against Trump, and often, their own warped perception of a "God’s Plan."
The Trump shooting serves as a stark reminder of QAnon’s immense power to undermine critical thinking and propagate fabricated realities. It highlights the need for increased scrutiny of online platforms that host QAnon content, and for a broader societal effort to combat misinformation and promote media literacy.
Furthermore, understanding the psychological mechanisms driving individuals toward these extreme beliefs is crucial for developing effective counter-messaging strategies. Addressing the underlying anxieties, fears, and even sense of belonging that can lead people to embrace QAnon is essential to dismantling its dangerous grip.
The Trump shooting, while a tragedy, offers an opportunity to examine the deep societal fissures that allow QAnon to thrive. As researchers, educators, and concerned citizens, we must work collectively to combat the spread of misinformation and cultivate a citizenry that embraces critical thinking and evidence-based reasoning. Unless we confront the underlying conditions that fuel conspiracy theories like QAnon, the danger of their influence will only continue to grow.
