France’s Election: Economic Anxiety Propels Far-Right to Brink of Power
As France’s parliamentary elections concluded on Sunday, a stark shift in the political landscape, fueled by the cost-of-living crisis, left many shocked. While President Emmanuel Macron secured a second term earlier this year, the National Rally (RN), a party previously considered fringe, secured major gains in these elections, demonstrating the growing influence of economic anxiety and anti-immigrant sentiment.
Key Takeaways:
- The RN’s Rise: The RN’s electoral success stemmed from its focus on economic concerns like inflation, stagnant wages, and rising living expenses. Jordan Bardella, the party’s president, promised tax breaks for energy, gas, and electricity, as well as a 10% wage increase for low-earners.
- Left-Wing Coalition’s Promise: The New Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties, offered a contrasting economic program, focused on redistribution of wealth, including raising the minimum wage and lowering the retirement age.
- Unclear Funding: While both parties presented ambitious economic plans, experts have raised concerns about their credibility and feasibility, with some pointing towards potential financial instability for France, which is already struggling with a large national debt.
- Macron’s Response: Facing an increasingly troubled political landscape, Macron’s Renaissance party has vowed to continue its focus on fiscal conservatism with limited new spending, while attempting to address the cost-of-living crisis with targeted measures.
- Potential for Gridlock: The outcome of the second round of voting, scheduled for Sunday, is uncertain. A hung Parliament with no clear majority could result in legislative gridlock, potentially exacerbating France’s economic challenges.
The Rise of the National Rally
The RN’s focus on economic anxieties, coupled with a nationalistic and anti-immigrant agenda, has resonated with voters struggling with rising prices and stagnant wages. Their economic plan relies on cutting taxes and controlling immigration, with promises to save billions of euros by restricting access to social benefits for foreign nationals and reducing payments to the European Union.
However, independent analyses of the RN’s proposals have found them unrealistic and potentially unsustainable. The Institut Montaigne estimates the plan would cost nearly €38 billion per year, with major cuts in crucial areas like healthcare and social programs, while raising energy taxes could incur significant financial burden.
The Left’s Keynesian Approach
Meanwhile, the New Popular Front proposes a bold Keynesian spending program, aiming to stimulate the economy through increased government spending and wage hikes. The coalition’s plan includes a substantial increase in the minimum wage, price freezes for essential goods, and funding for education and childcare.
Their strategy involves taxing the wealthy through a resurrected wealth tax, increased inheritance taxes, and a new tax on corporate profits. However, experts argue that this approach could potentially negatively impact investment and economic growth.
Macron’s Center-Ground Approach
While Macron’s Renaissance party initially focused on fiscal conservatism, the election results have forced them to address the cost-of-living crisis more directly. Their current plan involves modest tax cuts and targeted assistance to low-income households.
However, concerns remain regarding France’s already high national debt, and the potential for further economic instability. Despite the growing economic challenges, Macron’s party remains committed to balancing the budget and avoiding significant tax increases.
Uncertainty and Possible Gridlock
The future of French politics, and its economic stability, remains uncertain. The potential for a hung parliament with no clear majority could lead to legislative gridlock, making it extremely difficult to implement any meaningful economic reforms. Economists warn that this scenario could lead to a debt crisis and further economic instability.
The French election has highlighted the growing anxieties of voters, who are demanding concrete solutions for the cost-of-living crisis. This sentiment has propelled the far-right into a position of unprecedented influence, and the upcoming second round of voting will determine whether France embraces their nationalist agenda or chooses a path of moderate economic policies.
