China’s Grip Tightens on Central Asia as Russia Struggles to Maintain Influence
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, this week is a stark reminder of the shifting geopolitical landscape in Central Asia. While Russia grapples with the consequences of its war in Ukraine and increasing dependence on China for supplies, Beijing is rapidly expanding its influence in a region traditionally considered within Moscow’s sphere of influence. This power struggle is playing out against a backdrop of growing Chinese investment, infrastructure projects, and economic leverage, while Russia seeks to retain its foothold through symbolic gestures and strategic alliances.
Key Takeaways:
- China’s Growing Influence: Beijing is aggressively investing in Central Asia, building new infrastructure like railways and deepening economic ties. This is evident in the warm reception Xi Jinping received in Astana, with Kazakh children singing in Chinese and emphasizing the "enduring" friendship between the two nations.
- Russia’s Counter-Move: Vladimir Putin seeks to maintain Russia’s presence in the region by solidifying its existing alliances, such as by potentially granting full SCO membership to Belarus, which is heavily reliant on Russian support.
- India’s Hesitation: India, a SCO member, is increasingly wary of China’s growing dominance in Central Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will skip the Astana summit and instead visit Moscow for talks with Putin, highlighting India’s efforts to balance its ties with both China and Russia.
- Competing Interests: Both China and Russia share an interest in maintaining stability in the region, primarily achieved through supporting authoritarian regimes. They often cooperate on matters of security, particularly concerning terrorism, as demonstrated by their cooperation in countering the threat of the Islamic State.
- China’s Strategic Advantage: Beijing’s superior economic power and strategically important infrastructure projects like the new rail line connecting Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Iran provide it with significant leverage. These projects offer China an alternative route to access the Middle East and Europe, reducing its reliance on Russia for trade.
A New Power Dynamic:
China’s economic and political clout is unmistakably growing in Central Asia. The region, once a crucial buffer zone for the former Soviet Union, is now witnessing a delicate dance between two powerful actors vying for control. Russia, already weakened by its war in Ukraine and international sanctions, finds itself increasingly dependent on China’s economic and military support.
While Russia still views the region as strategically important for its security interests, its ability to exert significant influence is diminishing. The upcoming SCO summit is a testament to this shift, showcasing China’s rising dominance and Russia’s efforts to maintain relevance.
Russia’s Defensive Maneuvers:
Russia’s participation in the SCO is largely a defensive strategy to counterbalance China’s growing influence. Moscow seeks to retain access to Central Asian markets to circumvent Western sanctions and maintain its economic lifeline. This is evident in the billions of dollars worth of Western goods imported through Central Asian intermediaries to Russia. Moreover, Russia heavily relies on Central Asian migrants to support its economy and to rebuild the occupied parts of Ukraine.
Russia’s close security cooperation with Central Asian countries, particularly against the threat of terrorism, also reflects its attempt to retain influence in the region. The recent deadly attack in Moscow by a group of Tajik citizens, claimed by the Islamic State, highlights the shared security concerns of Russia and Central Asian nations, creating an opportunity for Moscow to solidify its alliances.
China’s Long Game:
China’s approach to Central Asia is strategically grounded in its long-term vision of expanding its economic and political influence. Beijing’s investments in infrastructure projects, like the new railway linking Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, are designed to facilitate trade and strengthen its economic dominance over the region. This also provides China with an alternative trade route to Europe, reducing its reliance on Russia.
The increasing economic and political ties between China and Central Asian countries are raising concerns about the longevity of the region’s independence. There are fears that a more integrated Central Asia, with its growing reliance on China, could see its strategic autonomy compromised.
The Future of Central Asia:
As China continues to solidify its position in Central Asia, the region is likely to witness an increasing power imbalance between Russia and China. The upcoming SCO Summit in Astana will be a key indicator of the future direction of this dynamic.
The competition between these two powerful nations has significant implications for the future of Central Asia:
- Political Independence: The growing economic and political ties with China raise concerns about the future of Central Asian nations’ political autonomy.
- Economic Development: A key question is whether the Chinese investment will genuinely benefit the region’s development or primarily contribute to China’s economic ambitions.
- Regional Security: The complex interplay between Russia and China’s competing interests could impact Central Asian security, potentially creating a power vacuum and generating instability.
The SCO Summit serves as a platform for China and Russia to project their influence on the region, but it also offers Central Asian nations an opportunity to navigate their relationship with these two giants strategically. The summit is likely to be closely watched as a barometer of the evolving power dynamics shaping the future of Central Asia.
