Wall Street’s Quiet Game of Thrones: Whispers of a Biden Exit and the Rise of David Ellison
As murmurs grow louder within the Democratic Party about President Biden’s potential withdrawal from the upcoming presidential race, Wall Street titans have begun their own, quiet power play. Instead of Hollywood’s vocal calls for Biden to step aside, financial powerhouses are playing a different game, one rooted in discretion and strategic influence. Key figures like Larry Fink of BlackRock, Robert Rubin, the former Treasury secretary, and Jon Gray of Blackstone have been privately debating their next move in this evolving political landscape.
Key Takeaways:
- Wall Street strategizes silently: While media moguls like Reed Hastings, Barry Diller, and Abigail Disney have publicly called for Biden to step down, Wall Street power players are staying mum, opting to wield their influence behind closed doors.
- The game of timing: The financial elite is carefully analyzing the potential timing of Biden’s exit, weighing the pros and cons of a pre-nomination withdrawal versus waiting for the primaries. This includes concerns about the impact on the Democratic Party and the potential for a "mini-primary" to select a new nominee.
- The Paramount-Skydance merger: The media landscape is also undergoing a major shift, with the Paramount-Skydance merger forming a powerhouse studio under the leadership of David Ellison and bringing about an uncertain future for Paramount+.
- France’s political uncertainty: The result of the recent French parliamentary elections has added an element of instability to the eurozone, with the country facing political paralysis and a possible credit downgrade.
- Sun Valley without Buffett: The annual gathering of elite business leaders, Allen & Company’s Sun Valley Conference, will be without its longtime attendee, Warren Buffett. This symbolizes the changing of the guard at Berkshire Hathaway, with Greg Abel, Todd Combs, and Ted Weschler stepping into more prominent roles.
A Shift in Democratic Power Dynamics
While the political scene is dominated by public pronouncements and debate, a quiet but powerful force is operating within Wall Street’s inner circle. This group, composed of some of the Democratic Party’s most influential financiers, is navigating the potential departure of President Biden with a blend of caution and strategizing.
The sources who spoke to DealBook highlighted a disparity in approach between the finance world and Hollywood. Wall Street’s game is about maintaining influence within the Democratic Party, and open calls for Biden to step aside could jeopardize their existing connections and power structures.
Instead, these key players are meticulously assessing the potential outcomes of different scenarios. They’re exploring ways to preserve Biden’s legacy should he choose to withdraw, while also considering the impact on the party’s future and its ability to compete against Donald Trump in the upcoming election.
Donors are grappling with the timing dilemma. Some believe Biden should remain in the race until after the primaries to solidify his place as the nominee, giving him the authority to choose his successor. Others argue that a sooner exit would allow for a smoother transition and prevent potential party strife.
There’s a strong consensus, however, that Wall Street will continue its financial support for the Democratic Party, regardless of whether Biden remains in the race, due to their deep opposition to Trump.
The Paramount-Skydance Merger: Hollywood’s New Power Couple
The media industry is also experiencing a significant shakeup with the Paramount-Skydance merger. This deal, brokered by Shari Redstone, marks a major shift in Hollywood’s landscape, elevating David Ellison, founder of Skydance, to one of the most influential executives in the industry.
The merger brings a unique set of challenges and opportunities for Paramount. While it strengthens their production pipeline, it also raises questions about their streaming strategy. Paramount+ has been a drain on company resources, and analysts are urging them to adopt a more "arms dealer" approach, similar to Sony, and sell content to other services.
The merger also raises questions about the Redstone family’s future role. While they’ve expressed interest in board positions, the extent of their involvement is yet to be determined. The deal faces regulatory scrutiny from the FCC, which could pose delays and potential complications. With the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power, the FCC’s stance on the merger could be influenced by the shift in political winds.
France’s Uncertain Future: Political Gridlock and Economic Concerns
The recent French parliamentary elections have generated a sense of uncertainty within the eurozone. While Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party was prevented from gaining control, the surge in support for the left-wing parties has created a hung parliament, leaving President Macron with limited legislative power.
This outcome has sparked concerns about France’s economic future and its ability to attract foreign investment. The spread between French and German bonds has reached its highest point since the 2012 debt crisis, and analysts are anticipating potential credit downgrades.
The left-wing’s focus on corporate and wealth taxes is a further cause for worry among business leaders. This political instability could deter investment and talent from choosing France as their base, potentially slowing down the country’s growth trajectory.
Sun Valley: A Gathering Without the Oracle of Omaha
The annual Allen & Company conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, is a well-known gathering of media, tech, and political leaders—a place where deals are made and trends are set. This year, however, Warren Buffett’s absence is making waves.
Buffett, a longtime fixture at Sun Valley, has been reducing his travel commitments, making this year’s event his first absence in many years. His decision underscores the changing power dynamics at Berkshire Hathaway as Greg Abel, Todd Combs, and Ted Weschler step into more prominent roles.
The future of both Wall Street and Hollywood remains uncertain. As the political and economic landscape shifts, these power players will continue to make adjustments, shaping the trajectory of industries and influencing the direction of the nation.
