Josh Jacobs or Aaron Jones: Which Running Back Should You Draft in 2024 Fantasy Football?
The Green Bay Packers shocked both fantasy football managers and Packers fans alike when they signed former Raiders star running back Josh Jacobs to a 4-year, $48M contract. This came as a surprise because just over a month earlier, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Aaron Jones "absolutely" would be back in Green Bay, and they also had to eat $12M in dead money.
Just one day later, Jones signed a one-year, $7M deal with one of Green Bay’s biggest rivals, the Vikings. Due to hamstring and knee injuries, the 29-year-old Jones was limited to just 11 games and 656 rushing yards and three total touchdowns in 2023, but he also had a complete season in 2022 where he ran for 1,121 yards and added in 59 receptions for 395 more yards.
Meanwhile, in a putrid Raiders offense, Jacobs compiled 805 yards and six touchdowns across 13 games in 2023. Similarly to Jones, he was much better in 2022, though, as he led the league in rushing yards with 1,653 including 12 touchdowns, as well as 53 catches for 400 more yards.
Both running backs are coming off disappointing seasons, but both have been fantasy studs over the course of their careers. And now they are both on new teams. So, which running back is the better fantasy football draft pick for 2024?
Key Takeaways:
- Josh Jacobs is in a more potent offense with Green Bay. This should lead to more opportunities and a higher overall fantasy output.
- Jacobs is younger than Jones and entering his age-26 season. He’s still plenty young and capable of a breakout year.
- Jacobs has shown a higher ceiling than Jones in the past. He’s a proven workhorse back who can catch passes.
- Jones is on just a 1-year deal, which could mean he’s playing for another big contract. He’ll be motivated to put up good numbers.
- The Packers have a promising young wide receiver corps, which should help open up running lanes for Jacobs. Defenses will have to stay honest.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones
After a disappointing 2023, it’s easy to forget that Aaron Jones was drafted as the RB10 two years ago. Yes, age is a concern for Jones, but he only has to contend with Ty Chandler in the Vikings’ backfield. Chandler’s biggest contributions are typically in the passing game, but Jones can handle a lot of that as well.
The Vikings don’t have an elite offensive line, but they also don’t have one of the league’s worst units. All five members of the O-Line return this season, and Establish the Run’s offensive line guru Brandon Thorn has them ranked as the No. 14 unit in the league. The quarterback situation is a little worrisome, though.
The Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy No. 10 overall in this year’s draft, and it was widely expected that he would take over the offense at some point this year. But now it looks like Sam Darnold will be the guy, and he’ll have a longer leash now without McCarthy breathing down his neck. Normally in a situation like this, you’d expect defenses to try and stack the box against the run and make Darnold beat them. But Darnold also has the luxury of his No. 1 target being Justin Jefferson. With Jefferson’s dynamic playmaking ability, defenses will have to stay honest and defend against both the run and the pass.
Jones is also on just a 1-year deal, so he’ll certainly be motivated to put his best foot forward all season as he works towards another contract. The biggest factor to worry about is health. The opportunity is there. The all-around skill set is there. But will the health cooperate?
Fantasy Football Outlook for Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs enters a backfield that saw the Packers place AJ Dillon on IR after this article was initially published, and the Packers drafted MarShawn Lloyd, which was originally the bigger concern. Despite having similar builds, Lloyd showcased impressive athleticism and escapability at USC last season. But Lloyd did suffer a hamstring strain on Aug. 10 during a preseason game. It’s not considered serious in terms of his status for the start of the season, but he lost out on invaluable reps during camp and in preseason games. Lloyd has the talent to eat into Jacobs’ production, but it will likely take him longer now to receive an opportunity to showcase his talents.
So, in terms of the backfield, Jacobs should be in line for the bell cow role he’s been in his entire career. He’s in a pretty promising offensive situation as well. Jordan Love made giant strides last season, and perhaps no team has as deep of a young, promising wide receiver corps as the Packers. While none of Love’s receivers have carved out a true alpha role, any of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks can hurt you on any given play. They even have two very good tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. There are way too many options for defenses to hone in on any one player. This should open up some nice running lanes for Jacobs, and this offense should be spending plenty of time in the red zone, which is exactly what Jacobs’ fantasy managers are hoping for.
Thorn has the Packers ranked four spots below the Vikings in his offensive line rankings, but he does note that they’d be higher if it were based more on run-blocking. And Jacobs is only entering his age-26 season, which is also just one season removed from an All-Pro campaign.
The Verdict: Which Running Back Should You Draft?
When our initial PPR rankings came out, Jones and Jacobs were neck and neck with each other, and Jones was even ahead by a nose. But then McCarthy went down. Then Lloyd missed much of the preseason, and we’ve since learned that AJ Dillon has been placed on IR ending his season. Things were starting to shift, and while they were still neck and neck, Jacobs was now ahead by a nose.
According to FantasyPros’ consensus ADP data, Jacobs is being drafted as the RB12 and No. 28 overall, and according to their consensus rankings, Jacobs is the RB15 and overall No. 46 pick. Meanwhile, Jones is being drafted as the RB19 and No. 56 overall while being ranked RB19 and No. 58 overall.
In our freshly updated running back rankings, we’re seeing very similar movement as Jacobs is now our RB14 (No. 45 overall), while Jones is down to RB19 (No. 64 overall). At this point, just about everything is pointing in Jacobs’ favor. He’s in a more potent offense, he’s younger, he’s shown a higher ceiling in the past, and the competition behind him has been mitigated by Lloyd’s injury. In a recent episode of The Underdog Football Show, Hayden Winks revealed he has Jacobs as his RB8 and sees a path to him finishing even higher. The arrow is pointing up for Jacobs in Green Bay, so don’t be afraid to add him to your team in fantasy drafts this year, even though you’ll have to snag him before you would with Jones.
