The world of fantasy football is constantly in flux, with player values shifting based on preseason performances, roster moves, and even whispers of rumors. This week, several players have seen their stock rise and fall, reflecting the dynamic nature of the draft landscape. While some veterans are on the decline, others are poised for breakout seasons. This week, we’ll focus on a veteran receiver who could finally have his WR1 season, dueling teammates who are shaking things up in Jacksonville, and a surprising faller whose value remains a mystery.
RISER: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin’s ADP is on the rise, and for good reason. The trade of Jahan Dotson to the Philadelphia Eagles opens the door for McLaurin to become the true WR1 in a Commanders offense that is primed for an upswing. With Dotson gone, along with Curtis Samuel, a whopping 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns are up for grabs in an offense that is set to improve with Jayden Daniels at the helm.
McLaurin has always been a threat, but his potential has been hampered by inconsistent quarterback play. Now, with Daniels bringing a new level of competence to the Commanders, McLaurin has a chance to finally fulfill his promise. A slight increase in target volume and a more efficient quarterback who can deliver the ball into the endzone put McLaurin in a prime position for a career year.
Is the rising in my rankings? Yes, to the moon (within reason)!
Terry McLaurin truthers, rejoice! While the Commanders have other receivers like Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Ben Sinnott, McLaurin stands out as the veteran with the proven track record and clear potential. While I’m not pushing McLaurin into the top 20, a jump to low-end WR2 is a conservative but justified move given his newfound opportunity.
RISER: Brian Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
FALLER: Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Who is the Jags’ real WR1? This question is becoming increasingly relevant as preseason performances shed light on the pecking order in Jacksonville.
While Christian Kirk had a strong 2023 season, his production may have been inflated due to Zay Jones’ injury. Now, with both Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis seemingly favored in two-receiver sets, Kirk’s target volume could become inconsistent.
Thomas, drafted as a direct replacement for Calvin Ridley, has a clear path to a starting role. He possesses the talent and opportunity to become Trevor Lawrence’s go-to target in the Jags offense. Thomas’s ADP reflects the gap in talent he exhibited compared to the top three receivers in the draft class. That gap could be an *advantage* for savvy fantasy drafters.
At his current ADP, Thomas offers the upside potential of a WR1 in a strong offense. Meanwhile, Kirk’s value is declining, making him a risky proposition for fantasy managers. While Kirk can still be a solid contributor, Thomas’s upside and touchdown equity make him a more attractive selection at his current draft position.
Are they rising and falling in my rankings? YEP!
Thomas and Kirk are on opposite ends of the spectrum in my rankings. While I believe in Kirk’s ability to be a solid fantasy option, I’d prefer to draft players like Ridley, Chris Godwin, and Diontae Johnson before taking a chance on him. Thomas, on the other hand, possesses the true upside and touchdown equity that should make him a target in this range of ADPs.
FALLER: Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White’s inexplicable dip in ADP is a cause for concern for fantasy managers who see his potential. While his preseason stats are limited, they are solid: 10 carries for 46 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with one rushing touchdown and a long run of 17 yards. White’s backup, Alexander Mattison, has been underwhelming, and Dylan Laube doesn’t seem to threaten White’s workload.
White’s fall is perplexing, especially considering his strong preseason performance and the lack of competition for his role. It seems like he is falling independently, and the reason for his decline is unclear, possibly due to a lack of confidence in the Raiders as a whole, particularly the quarterback situation.
Is the rising in my rankings? No, because I promise it won’t be that bad!
I believe White’s current ADP is appropriate; while I don’t advocate over-drafting him, his value is still in a low-risk range. The Raiders are projected to be a run-heavy offense, with a quarterback who is capable of keeping defenses honest due to the talent of their receivers. The Raiders have a strong defense, which should help protect White from being taken out of the game due to the team falling behind.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the Raiders, White has a good chance of becoming a solid RB2 in fantasy. The potential for consistent volume, goal-line opportunities, and a solid defense create a favorable environment for White to flourish.
