Preseason Buzz: Fantasy Football Stock Up and Stock Down for Week 1
Now that preseason games are over, we are less than two weeks away from a weird looking kickoff that will start the NFL (and your fantasy) regular season. There may still be some injuries at practices, trades completed and contract situations that get clarified, but we have a better read on most players for your upcoming draft. Here are some players who have had their stocks rise or fall over the preseason.
Key Takeaways:
- Cooper Kupp’s ADP is soaring, even with Puka Nacua yet to fully recover from a knee injury. Kupp’s strong finish last season and history of elite production make him a steal in the WR15-20 range.
- Taysom Hill’s versatility continues to be a valuable asset in the Saints offense, and his TE eligibility on some platforms makes him a tempting pick at a position known for scoring volatility.
- Isiah Pacheco appears to be a true three-down back for the Chiefs, with his expanded role in the passing game making him a potential late-round "Hero RB" choice.
- Mark Andrews’ ADP is slipping, as his declining production in recent years and the emergence of other Ravens pass catchers has created questions about his ceiling.
- George Pickens remains a risky pick, with the Steelers’ QB situation and potential for an Aiyuk trade making his targets and production uncertain.
- Keenan Allen’s move to the Bears has lowered his stock, as he joins a crowded offense with DJ Moore already established as the top target.
Stock Up: Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
Kupp has seen his ADP rise over the past few weeks and is now being taken inside the second round in some drafts. This correlates to a drop in ADP for Puka Nacua, who is still recovering from a knee injury and has yet to return to action, leaving his status for Week 1 against Detroit up in the air. If Nacua does miss any time, Kupp would be an incredible value in the WR15-20 range, but I think he should be moving up regardless. Even with Nacua on the field and enjoying a record-setting rookie season, Kupp finished strong with four TDs in his final five games, along with 8+ targets in four of them and 100+ yards twice.
Kupp was the overall WR1 in his last full season, back in 2021, with an eye-popping 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. His chemistry with Matthew Stafford is still obvious, and the Rams will continue to be a pass-heavy offense under Sean McVay. I’d be happy leaving my draft with Kupp as my WR2 and think the window is closing to get him at a discount.
Stock Up: Taysom Hill, QB/TE, NO
Taysom Hill’s stock continues to rise as we approach the regular season. In the past, we’ve seen him in a wide range of roles, but with Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson and Kendre Miller still dealing with injuries, we may see even more of him! Hill ran five times out of the backfield and even served as a lead-blocking fullback in his final preseason action. Head coach Dennis Allen has said they are looking for new ways to get Hill involved and this may be it. Hill has recently gained TE eligibility on some platforms, making him appealing at a position where many guys outside the top eight are TD dependent. His touches may come in different ways, but drafters are realizing that Hill can provide a safer floor than other TEs in the same tier with reliable usage in the Saints offense.
Hill also maintains his unquestioned role at the goal-line, scoring a combined 29 TDs in the past four seasons. For context, Travis Kelce is the only tight end with more touchdowns scored in that timeframe (38 – insert mind blown emoji here). And, of course, we can’t ignore the 11 TD passes that Hill has tacked on to his fantasy totals since 2020, as well.
Stock Up: Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
Any discussion about the Chiefs starts and ends with Patrick Mahomes, and understandably so. However, drafters are realizing that Pacheco is one of only a handful of true three-down backs in the NFL and his stock is up as a result. His 935 rushing yards last year came in only 14 games, and he made a big Year 2 leap in the passing game.
Gaining the team’s trust in the passing game, he added 44 catches and two TD receptions without Jerick McKinnon on the team to fill that role in the Chiefs backfield. Kansas City didn’t add much to the backfield in the offseason, so Pacheco has solidified his importance and usage in the offense. His stock is up as a result, with more drafters selecting Pacheco to be a “Hero RB” late in Round 2, ahead of guys such as De’Von Achane and Josh Jacobs.
Stock Down: Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
Andrews’ ADP is falling outside of the fourth round and I think it has little to do with the unfortunate car accident he had a couple of weeks ago. Andrews’ production has declined each of the past three years and his 2021 season of 107 catches, 1,361 yards, and 9 TDs now looks more like the exception than the rule.
Andrews will no doubt still be one of Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets and deserves to be drafted as a top TE, but this is a different offense under Todd Monken. The Ravens will lean on second-year wideout Zay Flowers as a primary WR, and added Derrick Henry in the offseason — he should command a bunch of goal-line opportunities. Ravens coaches have also said third-year TE Isaiah Likely has earned more opportunities on the field.
Drafters believe in the breakout potential of players such as Trey McBride, Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid providing other options for an elite tight end. All this adds up to people waiting to grab Andrews. Honestly, I’d go with one of those younger ascending options myself.
Stock Down: George Pickens, WR, PIT
Pickens may be one of the hardest players to project at this time. I explained how we have an idea for most players now that the preseason is over. However, the Steelers have yet to formally announce their QB1 and reports indicate a trade between the Steelers and 49ers for Brandon Aiyuk is still possible. I believe Pickens’ ADP is down as a result of incorrect assumptions for both of these questions.
There was buzz that Justin Fields may overtake Russell Wilson as the starter, which would include more running from the QB position and a less experienced arm trying to get the ball to Pickens. An Aiyuk trade would also threaten Pickens’ status as the alpha in the Pittsburgh pass game, causing his targets and fantasy production to drop. However, I believe Wilson will be announced the starter and Pickens will be the No. 1 option in the Steelers passing game. His ADP has dropped into the fifth round, and if you buy the dip, you’ll be rewarded once the dust settles.
Stock Down: Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
Allen’s resume as a valuable fantasy receiver cannot be debated. In fact, no other receiver can boast that of having 95+ catches and over 950 yards in six of the last seven seasons. The talent is still there even entering his age 32 season. The debate comes from the fact that Allen is no longer a member of the Chargers, with Justin Herbert force-feeding him as his top target.
He’s now in Chicago and should become a security blanket for No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. DJ Moore got paid in the offseason and is still the top target for the Bears, but Chicago added a bunch of weapons to support the rookie phenom. In addition to Allen, the Bears signed RB D’Andre Swift and used a top 10 pick on WR Rome Odunze in April. They even brought in Gerald Everett to add a second pass-catching TE along with Cole Kmet.
This should all be great for Williams and the Bears offense, but creates a fantasy herd, making it more likely Allen will have off weeks and frustrate fantasy managers. Allen’s ADP has almost dropped out of WR3 range and he is now being drafted more as a flex option. He has fallen behind players such as Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, and Chris Godwin, who have less competition for targets and a more solidified spot in the passing pecking order for their respective teams.
(Top photo of Cooper Kupp: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
