Preseason Insights: Fantasy Football Stock Watch Ahead of Week 1
The NFL preseason has come to a close, providing fantasy football managers with valuable insights that can help shape their draft strategies. While games might not have been the most thrilling, they offered glimpses into potential breakout players, roster battles, and injury updates that will significantly impact the upcoming regular season. This article analyzes key developments that could alter your player rankings and ultimately lead to successful fantasy campaigns.
Key Takeaways:
- Rice’s Resurgence: The silence surrounding Jahan Dotson’s suspension is pushing Quentin Rice back into the top 25 fantasy wide receivers.
- McLaurin’s Value Boost: The trade of Jahan Dotson to the Eagles strengthens Terry McLaurin’s fantasy appeal, as he could see an increase in targets.
- Worthy’s Promising Outlook: With Hollywood Brown sidelined, Rashee Worthy is on the rise, especially with his performance against the Chiefs, solidifying his potential as a top 80 pick.
- Brown’s Fantasy Role Remains Uncertain: Devon Achane’s ADP surge might not be warranted, as the Texans running back is likely to be part of a committee.
- Daniels’ Breakout Potential: Rookie quarterback Sam Howell has secured the starting role for the Commanders, making him a potential bargain pick due to his current ADP.
- Ford Takes Advantage of Chubb’s Absence: With Nick Chubb out for at least the first four weeks, Jerome Ford becomes the most likely candidate for fantasy success in the Cleveland backfield.
- Nix’s Stature Rises: Another rookie quarterback, Sean Payton’s favorite Drew Lock earned the starting spot in Denver, making him a viable late-round selection.
- Darnold’s Opportunity Knocks: The Vikings’ loss of rookie J.J McCarthy to a season-ending injury makes Sam Darnold the unquestioned starter.
- Minshew’s Late-Round Value: Gardner Minshew has won the starting quarterback job in Las Vegas, making him a valuable late-round pick in redraft leagues with multiple QB slots.
- Aiyuk’s Contract Stalemate: Deebo Samuel’s holdout over a new contract could hurt his draft stock, as he’s been mentioned in potential trades.
- White’s Limited Upside: While Zamir White is likely to lead the Raiders in carries, he may lose third-down and passing-game work to Alexander Mattison, limiting his ceiling.
- Warren Faces a Setback: Kenny Pickett’s initial ADP surge took a hit after he suffered a hamstring injury in the preseason.
- Brooks’ Delayed Impact: Jonathan Taylor’s return to the field could be delayed, with Chuba Hubbard likely to lead the Carolina running back group.
- Brown’s Early-Season Absence: Sky Moore’s ADP has dropped considerably because of his shoulder injury and the absence of any imminent suspension for Jahan Dotson.
- Chubb’s Return Uncertain: Nick Chubb starting the season on the PUP list makes him a questionable fantasy option until at least mid-October.
- Kmet’s Stock Falls: The arrival of Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze has put a dent in Cole Kmet’s potential fantasy value.
- Dotson’s Draft Value Plummets: Jahan Dotson’s trade to the Eagles has made him less likely to be a major factor in fantasy due to the presence of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.
- Herbert’s Uncertain Outlook: Justin Herbert’s disappointing performance has hurt his fantasy stock, making him a risky pick despite the loss of key players.
The Rise and Fall of Fantasy Prospects
The preseason provides fantasy managers a chance to reassess their draft strategies, with player rankings constantly shifting based on performance, injury news, and team dynamics. It’s important to stay updated on these developments, as they can significantly impact the success of your fantasy team.
Key Factors Influencing Draft Decisions
Beyond the individual player performances, several overarching factors can affect your draft decisions:
Preseason Injuries
Injuries are inevitable in football, and the preseason offers a glimpse into potential risks. Injuries can sometimes create opportunities for other players, but it’s crucial to understand their severity and impact on the player’s expected role.
Team Dynamics and Role Changes
The preseason often showcases changes in team offensive schemes and player roles. A quarterback who thrived in a specific system might struggle in a new one, or a running back might see his workload decrease if another player emerges.
Rookie Expectations vs. Reality
Rookie players often generate considerable excitement, but the transition to the NFL can be challenging. The preseason provides a limited sample, but it can offer valuable insights into how they’re adapting to the professional level.
ADP Trends and Value
Average Draft Position (ADP) reflects the collective wisdom of the fantasy community. However, it’s essential to examine where players are being drafted relative to their potential fantasy value, looking for potential bargains or players whose ADP might be too high.
Conclusion
The NFL preseason, despite its lack of high-stakes competition, provides a valuable resource for fantasy football managers. The information gathered from these games, combined with training camp reports and ADP trends, can help shape your draft strategy and lead to a more successful fantasy season. The most valuable players might not always be the highest-drafted, but the players that offer the best value for their ADP can be the key to fantasy dominance.
Remember to stay informed, adjust your player rankings accordingly, and consider the nuances of team dynamics, injury updates, and player roles to make smart draft decisions and put yourself in a winning position.
